From rxpgnews.com
India unlikely to join Sri Lanka's co-chairs
By M.R. Narayan Swamy, Indo-Asian News Service,
Nov 19, 2006 - 2:37:53 PM
New Delhi, Nov 19 (IANS) As global players overseeing Sri Lanka's peace process prepare to meet again, it is unlikely that India will formally join them even as the conflict slowly turns as intractable as the Israeli-Palestinian dispute.
And despite demands and pressures from various quarters, there are also no indications that New Delhi has any immediate plans to increase its profile in an armed confrontation that shows no signs of ending.
The wish among some of the countries constituting the 'co-chairs' (the US, Japan, peace facilitator Norway and the 25-nation European Union) to see India play a larger role vis-à-vis Sri Lanka coincides with the realisation that the international community has more or less run out of readymade solutions.
In some ways, the peace process that began in Sri Lanka with a Norwegian-brokered ceasefire pact in 2002 has reached the stage where India found itself after it signed the July 1987 pact with Colombo: in a virtual dark alley, with no easy answers to numerous and at-first-glance seemingly simple questions.
According to a variety of sources who spoke to IANS, there are three dominant reasons New Delhi is unlikely to get involved in a deeper manner in efforts to resolve the conflict between Colombo and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE):
-- The 1987-90 experience when India lost nearly 1,200 soldiers in fighting against LTTE after being deployed in Sri Lanka's northeast to bring peace. Colombo first invited the troops and then armed the LTTE against New Delhi.
-- The lack of political consensus in India now over any deeper engagement. There is opposition in Tamil Nadu to anything that would strengthen Colombo vis-à-vis the LTTE.
-- The Indian ban on the LTTE for its role in the 1991 assassination of former prime minister Rajiv Gandhi forbids contacts with the Tigers. Without equal ties with both parties, India cannot be a mediator or facilitator.
In any case, the LTTE prefers distant Norway to neighbour India as a neutral umpire. While Colombo has come out in favour of India in the past, it is more to cut Norway to size.
But India, the most important stakeholder in the peace process, has repeatedly made it clear that while it does not want a break up of the island, it backs the legitimate political aspirations of the Tamil minority.
There is also a feeling here, shared by some among the co-chairs, that the conflict that has claimed over 65,000 lives since 1983 has sunk into a quagmire, from where there may be no easy escape.
This is primarily because, as one informed source explained, neither the Sri Lankan government nor the Tigers is ready to make major compromises that would lead to a possible solution.
The co-chairs are themselves realising this.
As Sri Lanka's immediate neighbour, India was involved in the selection of Norway as the peace facilitator years ago and it gave its approval to the start of the peace process.
It also played a quiet role in the formation of the Nordic Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM), which monitors ceasefire violations in the island.
As the co-chairs, representing Sri Lanka's donor community, evolved into a kind of watchdog overseeing the peace process, it was agreed that India would be kept abreast of the developments.
But as the Indian establishment had more or less warned even as Norway's efforts began, the peace process has virtually stalled.
The international community is now coming to grips with its limitations, with both the Sri Lankan government and the LTTE determined to pursue their different and seemingly irreconcilable paths.
But India's seemingly hands-off policy has spawned criticism from various quarters. Some Western diplomats say New Delhi seems to be waiting for the rest of the world to bring peace in Sri Lanka before taking a plunge.
Even in India, there is no unanimity on what the government should do.
The latest meeting of the co-chairs, whose appeals for peace after every gathering are being ignored, is scheduled Tuesday in Washington. As usual, India will get a briefing once the meeting gets over.
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