From rxpgnews.com
Earth-shaking research to predict devastation from earthquakes
By Science and Technology Facilities Council,
Mar 3, 2010 - 4:59:36 AM
The computational science expertise at the Science and Technology Facilities Council's (STFC) Daresbury Laboratory is playing a key role in enabling researchers at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), to develop a tool that will make it possible to estimate the likely impact of large magnitude earthquakes at specific locations, before they happen.
Led and funded by the Institute of Engineering of UNAM, the project has closely studied the propagation of seismic waves through the earth's crust during a number of major earthquakes, including the Magnitude Scale (Ms) 8 earthquakes that heavily damaged Mexico City in 1985 and the Great Sichuan Earthquake in China in 2008. Using this background experience, Daresbury's computational scientists have been working with UNAM on the further development and optimisation of the simulation code for use on the world's leading computer systems. As well as looking at past events, the work is capable of studying ground motions from hypothetical earthquakes in vulnerable regions, and identifying where the ground shaking shocks would be at their greatest, should the earthquake occur.
Dr Mario Chavez, researcher at UNAM said: Our research means that governments, developers and planners across the world could soon have access to vital earthquake ground motion data that will enable them to assess the strength and impact of large or extreme magnitude earthquake scenarios in their own region. This kind of information could play a major role when working on the risk assessment for a facility site, such as a nuclear power station, or when designing homes, hospitals, schools, or any buildings, in determining how resilient they need to be in order to minimise the damage caused by an earthquake. It could also help to assess how adequate an area's emergency infrastructure would be in such an event. However, it is important to point out that we are not predicting that an earthquake will actually happen, or when it will happen, but to pose what if type scenarios such as, if an earthquake of a given magnitude does hit a specific area, first, how much and how fast the earth surface will move, and second, by using information of the resilience capacity of the existing or planned infrastructure in that region, what is the probable impact of the earthquake. We are very excited to be working with the computational scientists at STFC Daresbury, who are renowned world experts in engineering computing. Daresbury is one of the best computational modelling centres in the world.
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