Niyazov's death may give new direction to Turkmenistan
Dec 24, 2006 - 5:32:34 PM
, Reviewed by: Priya Saxena
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Niyazov's death, reportedly by cardiac arrest, can be said to be the first peaceful transition of a former communist commissar since the break-up of the Soviet Union in a region that has seen 'Tulip Revolution' in Kyrgystan, leading to the ouster of Askar Akayev. The region has to contend with a simmering movement of radical Islamists in the Ferghana Valley that has links in China's Xinjiang province and extends to Afghanistan and Pakistan. His policies gave Turkmenistan a continued phase of Soviet-style governance, minus most of its positive points. It is a reminder to other former communists - Uzbekistan's Islam Karimov, Tajikistan's Emomali Rakhmanov and Kazakhstan's Nursultan Nazarbayev - of the need to combine progress with democracy, even while combating radical Islam.
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By Mahendra Ved,
[RxPG] The death of Turkmenistan's President-for-life Saparmurat may help his country's re-emergence in Central Asia after 21 years of authoritarian rule and poverty despite having the world's fourth largest gas reserves.
Niyazov did not leave behind a successor. But with the economy heavily tied to Russia and his opponents living there in exile, Moscow, from all available indications, may once again play a decisive role in Turkmenistan, a former Soviet Republic.
Niyazov's policies were exclusivist and his departure may open up avenues for gas exploration projects on the Caspian Sea. India, for instance, is talking to Kazakhstan and has a favourable response from Uzbekistan and can also test the Caspian waters on the Turkmen side by seeking work, either jointly or with any of the major players.
Experts already looking at India's involvement in Sakhalin in Russia would need to study who New Delhi can now combine with: Russia's Gazprom, a Western cartel or with the Chinese who had already signed up with the Niyazov regime for a pipeline to be laid via Uzbekistan's Ferghana Valley in a project to be completed by 2009.
India's presence in Turkmenistan, says Central Asia expert Ramakant Dwivedi, could help counter the growing Pakistani influence in neighbouring Azerbijan. It also promotes its role in the 'extended neighbourhood'.India has willy-nilly shown some interest, after much hesitation because of the Pakistan factor, in the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan - gas pipeline project that accentuated the 'Great Game' in the mid-1990s. But a big question mark persists, thanks to the rivalry by major contenders and the unchanged ground situation in terror-stricken Afghanistan and parts of Pakistan through which the pipeline is to be laid.
Turkmenistan has not been adequately noticed by India. New Delhi has not gone much beyond a pharmaceutical project under a $5 million grant extended in the early 1990s. Physical barriers in reaching the land-locked nation of five million and the latter's capacity to absorb have been limiting factors. But India can yet look at investment in the farm and pharma sectors. It enjoys goodwill among the Turkmen who celebrated fifth centenary of Bairam Khan, uncle and guardian of Mughal Emperor Akbar, some years ago. Whether Niyazov's son or any other family member will have a place in the change of guard in Asgabet -, the Turkmen capital, remain to be seen. Among his allies turned opponents is Boris Shikhmuradov, familiar in New Delhi as one-time head of the Soviet Information Centre. He and another former foreign minister, Abdi Kuliev, are living in exile in Moscow.
Niyazov had kept both Moscow and Washington at an arms length, picking up disputes with the former on the price of Caspian gas and denying the latter a military base that was sorely required after 9/11 to launch operations in Afghanistan.
Niyazov took his policy of 'neutrality' to the extreme and kept out of political alliances like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation -, due to which Turkmenistan was completely isolated.
The 'Neutrality Tower' Niyazov erected in the heart of Asgabet at an estimated cost of $30 million to propagate his foreign policy shall stand as a reminder of one-party governance of a leader whose photograph hung everywhere. Millions of such photos were discarded in 1999 when he decided to colour his hair from grey to black.
Niyazov's death, reportedly by cardiac arrest, can be said to be the first peaceful transition of a former communist commissar since the break-up of the Soviet Union in a region that has seen 'Tulip Revolution' in Kyrgystan, leading to the ouster of Askar Akayev. The region has to contend with a simmering movement of radical Islamists in the Ferghana Valley that has links in China's Xinjiang province and extends to Afghanistan and Pakistan. His policies gave Turkmenistan a continued phase of Soviet-style governance, minus most of its positive points. It is a reminder to other former communists - Uzbekistan's Islam Karimov, Tajikistan's Emomali Rakhmanov and Kazakhstan's Nursultan Nazarbayev - of the need to combine progress with democracy, even while combating radical Islam.
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