RxPG News Feed for RxPG News

Medical Research Health Special Topics World
  Home
 
   Health
 Aging
 Asian Health
 Events
 Fitness
 Food & Nutrition
 Happiness
 Men's Health
 Mental Health
 Occupational Health
 Parenting
 Public Health
 Sleep Hygiene
 Women's Health
 
   Healthcare
 Africa
 Australia
 Canada Healthcare
 China Healthcare
 India Healthcare
 New Zealand
 South Africa
 UK
 USA
 World Healthcare
 
 Latest Research
 Aging
 Alternative Medicine
 Anaethesia
 Biochemistry
 Biotechnology
 Cancer
 Cardiology
 Clinical Trials
 Cytology
 Dental
 Dermatology
 Embryology
 Endocrinology
 ENT
 Environment
 Epidemiology
 Gastroenterology
 Genetics
 Gynaecology
 Haematology
 Immunology
 Infectious Diseases
 Medicine
 Metabolism
 Microbiology
 Musculoskeletal
 Nephrology
 Neurosciences
 Obstetrics
 Ophthalmology
 Orthopedics
 Paediatrics
 Pathology
 Pharmacology
 Physiology
 Physiotherapy
 Psychiatry
 Radiology
 Rheumatology
 Sports Medicine
 Surgery
 Toxicology
 Urology
 
   Medical News
 Awards & Prizes
 Epidemics
 Launch
 Opinion
 Professionals
 
   Special Topics
 Ethics
 Euthanasia
 Evolution
 Feature
 Odd Medical News
 Climate

Last Updated: Oct 11, 2012 - 10:22:56 PM
Research Article
Latest Research Channel

subscribe to Latest Research newsletter
Latest Research

   EMAIL   |   PRINT
New computer model of football can help NFL coaches call the next play, evaluate players

Apr 20, 2006 - 4:00:00 AM
ZEUS is currently designed to accommodate NFL rules and the statistical range of NFL teams. However, the model can provide a reasonably accurate assessment of many critical decisions in the college game as well.

 
[RxPG] Just what I need, groans every harassed head coach. Another critic.

Not this time. Indiana University scientist Chuck Bower and two partners from the business world, Frank Frigo of Louisville, Ky., and Bo Durickovic of Austin, Texas, have created ZEUS, a computer model of football as it's played in the National Football League, based on years of NFL statistics. ZEUS runs on an off-the-shelf laptop, perfect for a football sideline or a coach's booth above the playing field.

ZEUS is designed to do what a coach needs to do during a game but can't -- calculate the consequences of a decision before he calls the next play. Accept the penalty or decline it? Challenge the official's call or not? Go for it on fourth down or punt? Go for one extra point or two after the touchdown?

These are the kinds of decisions that often determine the outcome of a game, especially a close one. In many situations the decision is obvious, but sometimes it's not clear which choice offers the best chance to win. That's where ZEUS comes in.

Bower emphasized that ZEUS is not a substitute for coaching skills. It's a valuable addition to a coaching staff's tools, and one that can provide that elusive edge over the competition, he said. The ZEUS engine is powerful enough to simulate the equivalent of every game played in the history of the NFL in less than a second. ZEUS can objectively assess crucial play-calling decisions with startling accuracy.

Another application of ZEUS involves player position value. NFL data are available that are conversions of individual player performance into usable statistical input, including players in the non-ball-handling positions. An example is the work of Aaron Schatz and collaborators at Football Outsiders as detailed in their book Football Prospectus 2005, Bower said.

With the help of this data, ZEUS can convert a player's performance to net wins per season, Bower said. This is a great aid to NFL managers who must work within a team salary cap. For example, suppose a team is trying to decide whether they should re-sign an aging Pro Bowl running back and a veteran tackle with average ability. They have the alternative choice of acquiring a Pro Bowl tackle and then drafting in the second round a running back whom they regard highly but consider under-rated, which would potentially save the team $1 million in salary. Which path should they take? ZEUS can project how many additional wins per season each move should provide.

Information about ZEUS is available at

ZEUS was built through extensive research into NFL game logs, historical statistics and the behavioral traits of coaches.

The core model replicates, with amazing accuracy, the play-calling and statistical outputs of typical NFL teams, Bower said. ZEUS can also be customized for the offense and defense of a particular NFL team and its opponent. Then, with the capability of performing more than a million game simulations in a matter of seconds, it can assess critical play choices on their relative merits.

ZEUS takes the relative output of the simulation and performs an objective analysis of statistical significance and skill sensitivity. There is simply not a more accurate way to assess a critical play-calling decision in football, Bower said.

Fortunately, very good statistical data are available from the NFL on a team-by-team basis. Using these data, distribution curves were developed for the probabilistic outcomes of every possible play choice. Through continued refinement, a core model was developed that very accurately replicates how typical NFL teams perform against each other, Bower explained.

After millions of simulations had been performed, a comparison of several key statistics was conducted against actual NFL historical data. In categories such as average score differential, points, time of possession, rushing and passing yardage, kicking distances and field goal success rates, the results of ZEUS were spot on, Bower said, as can be seen at

Only then was ZEUS used to assess critical play calling. The remarkably close correlation between ZEUS analysis and the best available NFL historical data is shown at

But isn't football inherently different from other areas where game theory has been applied?

Surprisingly, games like chess and backgammon are tactically very similar to games like football and baseball, Bower said. While the physical nature of the game is very different, the situational nature is strikingly similar. A football coach is constantly making decisions with respect to multiple variables (score, field position, down, yards to a first down, etc.). Sophisticated computer models and simulations were introduced in chess and backgammon more than 20 years ago, and much has been learned. To say that technology has revolutionized these games would be an understatement. There is absolutely no reason that ZEUS cannot have an equally revolutionary impact on professional sports such as football and baseball.

ZEUS is currently designed to accommodate NFL rules and the statistical range of NFL teams. However, the model can provide a reasonably accurate assessment of many critical decisions in the college game as well.

With some modification, a very powerful product could be developed to assist the college coach, Bower said. Considering the already intense recruiting competition among college programs, technology may ultimately provide the edge needed to succeed at the highest level.




Advertise in this space for $10 per month. Contact us today.


Related Latest Research News


Subscribe to Latest Research Newsletter

Enter your email address:


 Feedback
For any corrections of factual information, to contact the editors or to send any medical news or health news press releases, use feedback form

Top of Page

 
Contact us

RxPG Online

Nerve

 

    Full Text RSS

© All rights reserved by RxPG Medical Solutions Private Limited (India)